Archive for Lafayette Sports Fan Forum This forum is not affiliated in any way with Lafayette College, Lafayette College Athletics, The Maroon Club or any other official organization. Please be respectful of other posters as well as the athletes, coaches and administrators.
 


       Lafayette Sports Fan Forum Forum Index -> Men's Basketball
Grandpa Tom

2014/15 Predictions

Very Happy On the eve of a new season, I just think it is fun to see what everyone thinks will be the outcome this year.   Now, no one will hold you to your prediction, or will we?  So, let it fly and I will start.   This years Pards have a lot of positives and just a couple negatives, but those negatives could prevent this team from reaching its potential.  This is the most experienced team we have had in recent memory,  they can play a lot of different line ups (can go big or small),  we have depth at most positions,  and they should be able to score with anyone.  The two areas of concern other than injuries of coarse are defense and rebounding.  I know, I know, sounds like a broken record.  Seems like every year we say the same thing.  I almost think I would be willing to play one or two kids who can flat out defend even if they dont score much just to see.   well, with that said, here is my prediction.  Non conf.  5 and 6,  of the 18 conf games I think we will win  14 and lose 4.  So 19 and 10 for the regular season and I will hold off on the tournament for now.  Hope this spurs your opinions and maybe even a little controversy.                GO PARDS!!!!
LC Fan

As long as you asked, I will predict 13-16 finishing tied for 5th in the league. Lack of defense, lack of rebounding, and lack of team speed will doom us and the coach's lack of confidence will make winning close games particularly difficult.
SixtyEighter

No prediction - Tomorrow night's game is being streamed over NEC Front Row their equivalent of Patriot League Network .
Refrider

"coach lack of confidence"?  Wow, never known Fran to lack confidence, especially in the close games.  Wonder where that comes from LC Fan?

Terrible making predictions, but I am extremely excited about this upcoming season.
BillS

Refrider wrote:
"coach lack of confidence"?  Wow, never known Fran to lack confidence, especially in the close games.  Wonder where that comes from LC Fan?

Terrible making predictions, but I am extremely excited about this upcoming season.
Refrider  I agree Fran never lacked confidence in anything...I may have  complained about Fran's recruiting targets but never his knowledge about basketball or confidence. GoPards!!!
carney2

This team has a lot of payback to do.  Of all the Lafayette teams with losing records in 2013-2014 (that's every team in a Lafayette uniform), men's hoops was THE most underachieving.  I"m hoping they take that seriously and play with some added fire.  There is some serious offensive talent available, but in the end that talent will dictate same old, same old shoot the three.  If we can play some defense (possible) and do some serious rebounding (less likely with the talent available) all of Grandpa Tom's predictions could come true.
Kpard

I too am excited about this group. Mainly because of the senior class (senior sense of urgency is a great thing) and hopeful of improvement from the sophmores from last year (particularly point guard). Not sure what our incoming froshmen will add, but, it sounds like the big kid is going to contribute.
I would be disappointed if we aren't in the top 3 in PL and don't win at least 18 games. Hopefully everyone gets and stays healthy.
NewXbo

If we can get through the season without significant injuries it will be a 20 win season.
bison137

Re: 2014/15 Predictions

Grandpa Tom wrote:
  well, with that said, here is my prediction.  Non conf.  5 and 6,  of the 18 conf games I think we will win  14 and lose 4.  So 19 and 10 for the regular season



The league is so balanced this year, with a lot of good teams, that I don't think any team will get to 14 league wins.   If anyone does it, that team may well be one of the top 10 or 12 teams in PL history.  My own opinion is that 12-6 likely will be enough to at least tie for the title.
bethlehempard

I concur except there are a lot of mediocre to weak teams. If Lafayette wins 16 and has a shot in the league tournament I will be happy. That's what I always look for.
What PL teams will do well OOC? I couldn't pick one.
Steve

Despite Seth Hinrichs' lengthy absence, our KenPom offensive efficiency numbers actually improved significantly from the good 2012-13 team.  However, the defensive efficiency numbers showed that our defense declined badly last year from the previous year -- by more than 10 points in the KenPom numbers, and finishing within the bottom 20 in Div. 1.  The main problems defensively were: defending quick players on the perimeter, defending big men who combined good size and mobility, and rebounding.

Can we make the needed improvement in those areas this year?  Nick Lindner has good quickness -- both straight ahead and laterally -- so hopefully with greater experience he can help us be better in defending quick penetrating guards.  Hopefully, Bryce Scott can raise his defense a notch from last year (although I definitely disagree with the poster from last year who claimed that Bryce is a cherry picker on defense).  Also, I'm not sure that any team in the PL will possess the level of perimeter quickness that Boston U. did last year, which gave us so much trouble.  In terms of interior and overall defense, having Seth healthy all year definitely would help.  Although he's not Dennis Rodman in his prime in terms of defense and rebounding, Seth does combine sufficient height, strength and mobility to help us in defending interior players with size and mobility.  (Several of our big men lack bulk or quickness.)  Also, Seth was our best rebounder last year, and his presence should help reduce the number of offensive rebounds we give up.  Finally, the more you score, the more you prevent opponents from getting transition opportunities and from going on scoring runs, so Seth's offensive skills could help our defensive efficiency numbers.

If Alan Flannigan stays healthy throughout the season, that should help our defense as well, although Alan often is forced to defend taller players.  Matt Klinewski has good size, and although scouting profiles describe him as not being particularly athletic, hopefully he has sufficient mobility to defend most PL big men; it would help a great deal if he can work his way into the rotation and help our interior defense.  Finally, Michael Hoffman is very athletic for his height.  Although he doesn't appear to have added much weight, with added experience, he could be a fairly effective shot blocker on help defense.

On offense, we should be very strong.  Having Seth at full strength throughout the season would bolster our already strong offensive efficiency numbers.  Seth was playing at a very high level before his injury, and I don't think he ever regained that level fully later in the season after he returned.  The biggest issue on offense is that Dan Trist is our only real post scoring threat.  When he was out of the game, we became almost entirely perimeter oriented, which makes us easier to defend.  Dan has to do a better job of avoiding foul trouble, so he can play more than 23 minutes a game;  we really need him to be able to give us close to 30 minutes per game.  One thing I would recommend is that Dan not try to draw offensive fouls on help defense.  Given his importance to our offensive spacing, it's just not worth the risk.  It may be expecting too much for Klinewski to come in and be a low post scoring threat as a freshman, but if he can provide us with some inside scoring when Trist is out, that would be a big plus.

I was very impressed by how Nick Lindner played at point guard last year.  A number of our fans criticized his play last year, which I thought was unfair, given the difficulty of a freshman playing full time at point guard and replacing a guy like Tony Johnson.  His 3-point shooting was decent last year, and if he can raise his accuracy a notch, with his quickness, he'll be a very difficult player to defend.  Hopefully, Bryce Scott can be more consistent offensively this year.  He had some great games, but also a fair number of games when he struggled offensively.  Joey just needs to continue what he did last year -- shoot accurately from 3 while continuing to improve his ability to score off the dribble.

Hopefully, Monty Boykins won't be plagued by injuries again this year.  I did see him wearing the boot at the HC football game.  I have no idea how serious his injury may be, but at least he didn't seem to me to be visibly limping with the boot on.  Monty struggled badly with his shot for much of the year, but eventually he gained accuracy, which led to him having by far his best game in the road win over Bucknell, really helping us pull out the win in the second half.  Unfortunately, he was injured shortly after that, so he didn't get a chance to continue his improvement.

Although I won't try to guess a  number of wins, I am optimistic that if the team stays healthy, we'll have a good season, and have a real chance to win the league championship -- albeit along with several other teams in a tightly contested league.  I agree that American should be considered the favorite, but I note that, statistically, their success last year was predicated more on defense than offense, and they're losing Wroblicky, the PL defensive player of the year.  I don't know how good the transfer Panzer will be at replacing Wroblicky's impact on defense, but if there's a significant dropoff, then AU might not be the favorite.

We have three games within the first two weeks that should give us a good early barometer of where the team stands -- the game at Robert Morris tomorrow night, the home opener against Princeton and the road game against Yale.  Each of those opponents should be good, but those games are the type of games you'd like to win if we hope to threaten for a league title.  Hopefully, we can get wins in at least 2 out of those 3.
bison137

bethlehempard wrote:
I concur except there are a lot of mediocre to weak teams.



I disagree - unless you're comparing PL teams to power-conference teams.  There are likely only two weak teams of the ten, and likely not many mediocre ones if judged by traditional PL or mid-major standards.  Compared to last year, I think at least two teams should be much better (LC and Army), with Colgate possibly getting into the "much improved" category as well.   Three more teams should be somewhat better (HC, Navy, and LU), with two more about the same (Bucknell and AU). at least on paper.   That leaves only two that figure to be worse (Boston U and Loyola).  

Of course this is all on paper. Injuries and the play of certain freshmen will have an impact.   For example, Bucknell appears to have one of its best freshman classes ever and how well they play will have a major impact.  Loyola also has what appears to be a good frosh class, and Lehigh will be dependent on a freshman PG who could be a good player.   Boston U will also have a freshman PG (likely not as good as LU's) and also will add two potentially good transfers.

AU also adds a pretty good transfer center - although not in the same class as Wroblicky.   With everyone else returning, I said above they will be about the same - but I don't think that will translate into the same league record.   Last year there were some signs the league was adjusting to their modified Princeton offense.  They were 10-0 in early league play and then 3-5 thereafter.  True, they did go on to win the PL tournament, but that may not have been quite as impressive as it seems.   First, after beating Colgate (who tied for 7th-9th place) at home in the first round, they trailed HC at home for much of the game - falling behind by 10 points with about 14 minutes left.  AU then switched to a 2-3 zone, and HC couldn't handle it. Outscored by 21 points after that point, and only had 2 points in a 14-minute span.  Then in the finals, they beat Boston U easily - with the entire game determined by one stat:  Boston U shot 1-17 on threes (.058) while AU shot 4-9 (,444).   AU did defend the three pretty well during the year, so they likely deserve some credit - but Boston also missed a bunch of open threes.  So I think the jury is still out as to whether AU will be as good as last year (when they were 13-5 in league and 20-13 overall).  In any event, they are almost certain to challenge for the top spot.
bethlehempard

Night One backs your point of view. The league was 3-4 and in every game. The biggest margin of victory 27 over RMU and the worst defeat  by 12, Texas Tech over Loyola. Navy's tight game with Michigan State is a big surprise.
***I was talking to an NJIT alumnus at a bar in Glastonbury CT last night. The school is the only D1 independent and he says they would love to join the PL. That seems unlikely. Just his wish. Beating Lafayette was a very big deal for them.
bison137

bethlehempard wrote:
Night One backs your point of view. The league was 3-4 and in every game. The biggest margin of victory 27 over RMU and the worst defeat  by 12, Texas Tech over Loyola. Navy's tight game with Michigan State is a big surprise.
***I was talking to an NJIT alumnus at a bar in Glastonbury CT last night. The school is the only D1 independent and he says they would love to join the PL. That seems unlikely. Just his wish. Beating Lafayette was a very big deal for them.



PL turned down NJIT once - and it wasn't a close call.  There is more chance of seeing Carney starting for LC at OT than of seeing NJIT in the PL in the next decade.   (Unless they start scholarship football, which is not happening.)

Yes, Navy's tight game with Michigan State was impressive, especially losing their best player, Worth Smith, early to what may be a serious injury.
Grandpa Tom

Very Happy Just finished watching the Wagner game.   That put the Pards at 5 and 2 with 4 non conf games to go.   We have been much better than I thought we would be this early.  Couple of observations.  The big three Dan, Joey, and Seth are playing like they have played together for three years.  Dan Trist is playing all aspects of the game well.  I have been pretty disappointed with his play in the past, but not so far this season.  The two areas of concern that I had mentioned to start this thread were rebounding and defense.  Both have been a pleasant surprise.  So at 5 and 2 with 4 non conf. games to play I need to revise my prediction.  7 and 4 non conf and still 14 and 4 in the league to end the reg. season at 21 and 8.  Go PARDS!!!
carney2

Grandpa Tom wrote:
So at 5 and 2 with 4 non conf. games to play I need to revise my prediction.  7 and 4 non conf and still 14 and 4 in the league to end the reg. season at 21 and 8.  Go PARDS!!!


I'm assuming that one of the predicted non-league losses is to Kansas.  And the other would be to...Sacred Heart (who is beating the Cross by 9 as I speak)?
pards123

Stay healthy boys. That was a fun run n gun type game to watch today
pards123

carney2 wrote:
Grandpa Tom wrote:
So at 5 and 2 with 4 non conf. games to play I need to revise my prediction.  7 and 4 non conf and still 14 and 4 in the league to end the reg. season at 21 and 8.  Go PARDS!!!


I'm assuming that one of the predicted non-league losses is to Kansas.  And the other would be to...Sacred Heart (who is beating the Cross by 9 as I speak)?


The NJIT game looks a tad tougher now that they beat Michigan, I suppose.
Franks Tanks

pards123 wrote:
carney2 wrote:
Grandpa Tom wrote:
So at 5 and 2 with 4 non conf. games to play I need to revise my prediction.  7 and 4 non conf and still 14 and 4 in the league to end the reg. season at 21 and 8.  Go PARDS!!!


I'm assuming that one of the predicted non-league losses is to Kansas.  And the other would be to...Sacred Heart (who is beating the Cross by 9 as I speak)?


The NJIT game looks a tad tougher now that they beat Michigan, I suppose.


Yale beat UCONN so it appears that Yale is pretty darn good and makes me feel better about that loss.

We will obviously lose to Kansas, and we will beat Susquehana.  Can we split the NJIT and Sacred Heart games?
Pard4Life

All the teams we have beaten thus far do not appear to be very good; the only two quality teams - Yale and WVU - were blow-out losses.  I can understand WVU.. but...

Sacred Heart will be an excellent benchmark... they beat HC and appear to be a competitive team.  Can we win a close game?
Kpard

The book on Lindner must be to pressure him and take him out of the offense. Wagner did this but the problem was they left Ptasinski unattended and he made them pay, and pay, and pay. FOH seems to be getting his rotations down. I see a lot of effort on defense. No one seems to be taking possessions of. Klinewski gaining confidence and is a hustler. I am looking forward to tonight's contest to see how we stack up against a better team that has won it's last 2 games against PL teams (@ Colgate & HC @ home). If we shoot like we did in the first half on Saturday...look  out.
Pard4Life

We are currently ranked 11th in the NCAA in FG % and I believe 59th in PPG.  Near the bottom in rebounding though.

       Lafayette Sports Fan Forum Forum Index -> Men's Basketball
Page 1 of 1
Create your own free forum | Buy a domain to use with your forum