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Bogus Megapardus

at Lehigh

Like it or not, it's time to take a look at this one, the finale of Jim Rogalski's 2105 campaign.

Reminder - this game is Friday night at 7:00 PM. PLN/Campus Insiders stream, probably called by the imbecile who keeps referring to us as "lawf-EYE-it."

Lehigh is better than Bucknell but not by a whole lot.

Lehigh vs. common opponents -
    Metro C. - 10-9 W
    Loyola - 8-11 L
    Bucknell - 8-9 L OT
    Navy - 12-13 L
    Army - 5-7 L
    Monmouth - 16-5 W
    Holy Cross - 19-7 W
    Colgate - 8-12 W

The Festering Brown Stain use two FOGOs.  Freshman #24 Matt Ernst (5-10/175) (Haverford PA, Episcopal Academy) is 68-136 (.500).  Sophomore #2 Casey McAdam (5-11/175) (Neshanic Station NJ, Somerville (NJ) High School) is 71-164 (.433).

The Brownie Bunch have 12 seniors on the roster, most of whom play.  The Leopards have four seniors.



Bogus Megapardus

Notable NCAA DI statistical ranking disparities (through 04-14-2015 - out of 69 teams ranked):

Clear Pct -
    Lehigh - ranked 33 (.860)
    Lafayette - ranked 54 (.811)

Faceoff -
    Lehigh - ranked 49 (.448)
    Lafayette - ranked 67 (.379)

Man Down Defense -
    Lehigh - ranked 34 (.648)
    Lafayette - ranked 18 (.690)

Shots/Goals Pct -
    Lehigh - ranked 21 (.299)
    Lafayette - ranked 45 (.270)

TO/Game -
    Lehigh - ranked 16 (12.64)
    Lafayette - ranked 54 (15.62)

Saves/Game -
    Lehigh - ranked 58 (9.64)
    Lafayette - ranked 31 (11.00)
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh's best offensive player (by far) remains senior Attack #41 Dan Taylor, the All-Canadian prodigy from Calgary.  Taylor is a lumbering 6-3/212.  This guy has been discussed ad nauseam in the past so there's no need to get further in to this Pard-killer, except to repeat, why didn't we get him?  Taylor leads the Saucon Sillies in both goals (36) and assists (34).  He is the offense.  Junior Attack # 17 Reid Weber (Oreland PA/Germantown Academy) has 29 goals on the season and senior Middie Kurtis Kaunas (Schnecksville PA, Parkland HS) has 20 goals.

Junior D/LSM #31 Casey Eidenshink (Wyncote PA/LaSalle College HS) has 44 GB and 20 CTO on the season.  Not quite Erik Cannon territory but a very good defender nonetheless.

#41 is the guy we have to take out if we can, without sacrificing the rest of the defense.
seenalot

Not just because its against LU, but one of the more important games we have played in some time.  Could draw some comparisons to the 2010 game (with hopefully a different result) and what could be a step towards respectability and true progress in an otherwise meeh year.  I have seen any number of good long poles take an attack guy right out of a game - lets see if we can work up a scheme that accomplishes same.

LU has been going the wrong direction with FO so maybe we can catch a few breaks there - and keep the turnovers to a lower level.  After that...who knows.
Bogus Megapardus

Here's how the Massey computer simulates a seven game series, with all games played at Lehigh:

    Lehigh 14 Lafayette 4 (1-0-0)
    Lehigh 11 Lafayette 12 (1-1-0)
    Lehigh 10 Lafayette 13 (1-2-0)
    Lehigh 6 Lafayette 9 (1-3-0)
    Lehigh 12 Lafayette 9 (2-3-0)
    Lehigh 18 Lafayette 8 (3-3-0)
    Lehigh 14 Lafayette 6 (4-3-0)

Massey predicts that Lehigh has an 89% probability of winning tonight, with a "most likely" score of 13-8.


Bogus Megapardus

Regarding my previous post . . . the Massey computer also has (for example) DII Adelphi beating Lafayette 20-4, DII Post beating Lafayette 13-10, DIII Muhlenberg beating Lafayette 15-8 and DIII DeSales beating Lafayette 12-9.  This simply would not happen.

I think the Massey computer is reasonably accurate for intra-disivion games but the algorithm clearly does not take into account the talent differences between DI, DII and DIII.  I am unaware of any games in recent history where any DI team played anything other than another DI team.

For what it's worth, Massey also has the Pards losing to BYU's club team 19-7, and losing to Nassau Community College 19-6.  Massey has some fine-tuning to do!



EDIT - just for fun, I tested Massey with DI Holy Cross going up against its two cross-town, lacrosse-playing, Worcester neighbors - DII Assumption beats Holy Cross 13-6 and DIII Clark U. beats Holy Cross 10-8!
Bogus Megapardus

I have a strangely positive feeling about this game.  Much different than how I felt before the UMBC or Loyola games (for example) because the product on the field has looked so much different since than.

I can't say we'll win but this doesn't seem like it will be the kind of wholesale disaster that we saw against Army and Navy (and even Metro C).  It ought to be close if the Pards can:

1)  Win more than 50% of the GB scrums even if we can't control the FO off the draw;
2)  Maintain possession for more than 50% of the clock;
3)  Minimize turnovers and eliminate unforced turnovers; and
4)  Contain #41 inside without giving their Middies space on the edge to rifle his passes in through broad, open seams left by playing him too close.

Needless to say Ben Falcone has to be in the zone as well.
Bogus Megapardus

Stream is not working. Typical Lehigh engineering.

Score in 1-0 Lehigh at the moment, with a goal by (who else) #41.
Bogus Megapardus

Sands goal ties it at 1-1.
Bogus Megapardus

Bock nets a burner from deep.  2-1 Pards.

Stream is now working.
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh's aggressive perimeter D doing a very nice job of disrupting Pard offensive flow.  We're going to have to work them inside.
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh goes EMO but Falcone looking good.

Pard D is playing in and blocking lanes; figure Lehigh is not going to get many of those 15-20 yard shots.  Rather keep #41 rattled.
Bogus Megapardus

Another goal by #41 at close right corner.  Pard DPole couldn't hang and he had no DMid help on his flank.

2-2 early in the 2d.
Bogus Megapardus

Pards fail to turn it over on the deep clear.  Will wonders never cease.
Bogus Megapardus

Lewis scores (but it looked to me like he was in the crease).  Draws foul.  McMahon wins ensuing faceoff.  3-2 Pards.
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh bumblesticks it and Pards get a TO, leading to a Kevin Lewis score.  4-2 Pards.
Bogus Megapardus

Guys, Erik Cannon is good but he can't cover two guys at once in close like that.  4-3 Pards.
Bogus Megapardus

Pard O playing very aggressively but a couple of blown opportunities there, without getting settled.
Bogus Megapardus

Yikes! A little tiny Lehigh kid find one underneath.  4-4.
seenalot

Two DUMB offsides penalties - or unnecessary calls depending on how you want to see it

Note to LU announcers - finishing quarters IS important - 5-5.....

Wasn't Telesco suspended for the season - or was that someone else.
Bogus Megapardus

Sands nails the wrap-around with half a second left in the half.  5-5 Tie.
Bogus Megapardus

Last year vs. Lehigh we were down 10-3 at the half.  Some might argue this is an improvement.
seenalot

for now they would be right
Bogus Megapardus

Second half - #41 Taylor literally drops the ball in the crease.  What are the odds?  Then we clear and it leads to an Eric Joseph goal.

6-5 Pards in the 3rd.
seenalot

this picture sucks or the scotch is better than I thought
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh trip and Pards go EMO.  I hope we're pissing them off and they start doing more Stupid Things.
seenalot

Those FO re-jams are very weak.  Have muted the sound instead of cusing at the bozos on mike
Bogus Megapardus

"Thou Shalt Not Droppeth The Small White Sphere."

Tied at 6.
Bogus Megapardus

Nice feed by #3 to #14.  Pards up 7-6 with 5:30 left in the 3rd.  Pards were down 15-3 at this point in the game last year.

Again, there are some who might argue that this is an improvement.



seenalot

First time since Wagner I have seen two clean FO wins without a scrum - nice.  Maybe its an omen....

Make that three...and four....
Bogus Megapardus

Holy Crap.  Orazietti sheds multiple checks and zings one in.  8-7 Pards with 7 minutes left.



EDIT - and he does it again!  9-7 Pards.
Bogus Megapardus

That didn't last long.  We need possession!!!!!

9-8 Pards.
Bogus Megapardus

Taylor scores.  9-9.  Ain't gonna happen, folks . . . .
Bogus Megapardus

No GBs, no possession, no can win.  10-10 with 2:27 left in the game.
seenalot

Hell of a game - improved indeed
Bogus Megapardus

Lehigh 11, Pards 10.  So friggin' close . . .  Confused
Bogus Megapardus

A couple of FO wins and a few more GB scrums and we take that game.  Helluva effort, Pards.  Helluva effort.
Bogus Megapardus

seenalot wrote:
this picture sucks or the scotch is better than I thought


Brown Town Clowns broadcast their games through a walkie-talkie they found in the basement.
newpardslax

So much improvement from earlier this year.  The team is clearly playing with confidence and the young guys are growing up quickly.  Much more to do but great momentum going in to next year.
Marooner

First of all, this one stings.

I know we're not in the business of moral victories here, but I can't help but be encouraged. We ended the season by going toe-to-toe with two pretty good teams.

Not to mention a late-season, three-game winning streak... all at home and not quite against a murderer's row of competition, but any three-game winning streak is an accomplishment for this team.

On paper, it's only a one-win improvement from last year, but anybody who followed this team knows better than that. Many of the pieces are there and are returning, now let's go on a run in 2016. Go Leopards.
Bogus Megapardus

Pards actually had more shots (51-35), more GBs (29-2Cool, fewer TOs (9-11) and more FO wins (13-11) than did Lehigh.  The only thing they didn't have was more goals.  Sad
Bogus Megapardus

Marooner wrote:
On paper, it's only a one-win improvement from last year.


Oh, it's a heck of a lot better than that, Marooner.  Damn good thing we're not using recycled paper!

We know now that we can hang with all but three PL teams.  That should put us in the PL tournament next season, which ought to be the goal of this program going into 2016.  Pards will lose Brian Bock and Sonny Round but the D remains intact.  New FOGOs are coming in (plus Girardi should be healthy), and the young'uns on the squad should be able to take up the slack (if not the leadership) of the graduating seniors.

Unless disaster strikes (players leave, coach quits, global warming, etc.) this program is on a steep upward trajectory.



EDIT - also Dan Taylor graduates at Lehigh, which is nice.
Bogus Megapardus

BTW - other strange happenings around the PL this evening . . .

Colgate 8, #17 Army 5
Holy Cross 12, Metropolitan College 10
Bucknell 10, #16 Loyola 9

Whoda thunk?
newpardslax

And McMahon (Soph) has been over .500 and better than BU and LU FOGOs the last 2 games.   He's really coming at a position that was a crippling weakness earlier this season.  Tonight the Sophs (7) and Juniors (2) scored 9 of 10 goals and that group led the team in scoring overall this season so next year they should pick up where they left.  Tough to lose Seniors but they are in good hands with the improving underclassmen.
Bogus Megapardus

newpardslax wrote:
And McMahon (Soph) has been over .500 and better than BU and LU FOGOs the last 2 games.   He's really coming at a position that was a crippling weakness earlier this season.  Tonight the Sophs (7) and Juniors (2) scored 9 of 10 goals and that group led the team in scoring overall this season so next year they should pick up where they left.  Tough to lose Seniors but they are in good hands with the improving underclassmen.


Imagine - Eric Joseph, Jason Sands, Kevin Lewis and Erik Cannon all are sophomores.  McCooe and McGuire are sophomores as well.  Matt Close, Scott McAvoy, George Cloud and Keith Cameron are freshmen.  That's a helluva core to build from.
Bogus Megapardus

"I want to give a ton of credit to Lafayette," said Lehigh head coach Kevin Cassese. "They outplayed us for 55 minutes of that game. They really took it to us and they controlled the play and the emotion. I tip my hat to them. At the end of the day, we were able to make enough plays to win today, and I'm very grateful for that, but I am disappointed about how our guys played tonight."

http://www.laxpower.com/laxnews/news.php?story=44262

Lehigh's standard, "we were entitled to win from the outset and it was close only because we played so poorly" speech.
seenalot

Nice quote coach - remember it boys and stick it up his smug ass next year.
Marooner

Bogus Megapardus wrote:
Marooner wrote:
On paper, it's only a one-win improvement from last year.


Oh, it's a heck of a lot better than that, Marooner.  Damn good thing we're not using recycled paper!


Which is why my full quote was:

Marooner wrote:
On paper, it's only a one-win improvement from last year, but anybody who followed this team knows better than that.

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