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Sagarin Hoops Ratings Going Into the League Season
Sagarin Ratings at the beginning of the Patriot League season:
Patriot League is 27th of 32 D-1 conferences.
Individual teams:
126 American (8-6)
135 Navy (11-4)
168 Lehigh (10-3)
236 Holy Cross (5-9)
292 Bucknell (3-10)
302 LAFAYETTE (4-9)
319 Army (4-9)
327 Colgate (3-9)
347 D-1 teams are rated.
Xboreturns
There are still six games to be played by league schools prior to Saturdays start of the league season. Tonight: BU @ Cornell, HC @ Central Florida, LC @ Penn, Fairfield @ Army, & CU @ North Carolina Central. Tomorrow is LU @ Princeton. The Sagarin Ratings will undoubtably change. How much the standing will change depends not only on the results of these games but all the other games played between now and Saturday. For example, a BU win over a good Cornell team in Ithica will give them a jump.
But the bottom line is none of this matters. The goal now is to get the highest possible seed to have the best chance of wining the tournament.
bison137
There are also at least three ooc games scheduled by PL teams in late January and February - which will affect Sagarin and RPI.
Also, of course, Sagarin and RPI can change a fair amount based on how the November/December opponents do as the year goes by. Even the conference RPI can change significantly during league play.
carney2
Apologies for getting everyone bent out of shape over this. I realize that there are a few more OOC games remaining. I realize that this can/will change. This was merely a post to show where we stand - specifically two items:
1. 302 out of 347 does not put us in elite company. Even I was surprised to see that we are this badly thought of.
2. The Pards are not dead last in this view of Patsy League teams. We will have to play down to hit rock bottom.
TheTruth
I wasn't too surprised by the sagarin rating. This is a young team and we did have to replace 5 of our top 7 players from last year.
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
Franks Tanks
TheTruth wrote:
I wasn't too surprised by the sagarin rating. This is a young team and we did have to replace 5 of our top 7 players from last year.
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
Years after the implementation of scholarship Lafayette and the league is really no better off it appears. With the exception of some very good Bucknell and Holy Cross teams of 3-4 years ago the overall impact seems to be minimal at best unfortunantly.
carney2
TheTruth wrote:
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
That is the primary reason that our team of adequate guards with no big men may very well exceed expectations (dead last). The Patriot League is downright dreadful this year - and pretty much from top to bottom.
Lafalum
Franks Tanks wrote:
TheTruth wrote:
I wasn't too surprised by the sagarin rating. This is a young team and we did have to replace 5 of our top 7 players from last year.
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
Years after the implementation of scholarship Lafayette and the league is really no better off it appears. With the exception of some very good Bucknell and Holy Cross teams of 3-4 years ago the overall impact seems to be minimal at best unfortunantly.
Nothing is done in a vacuum. We are now competing with an Ivy League that gives a virtual full ride to everyone. Also a fact that many have ignored our graduation rates were the second lowest in the League and we were not making our AI targets as well. I would argue we have some exceptional student athletes but they are young. We are still missing that big athletic center, so one or two players in the mix could make a difference.
Our esteemed BOT chairman was fond of saying that scholarships don't guarantee championships. What he failed to point out, competing with other schools that do have scholarships guarantees you'll never see ANY championships. The responsibility now lies on the coach to recruit well. So far we have not gotten that crucial person in the center.
Franks Tanks
Lafalum wrote:
Franks Tanks wrote:
TheTruth wrote:
I wasn't too surprised by the sagarin rating. This is a young team and we did have to replace 5 of our top 7 players from last year.
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
Years after the implementation of scholarship Lafayette and the league is really no better off it appears. With the exception of some very good Bucknell and Holy Cross teams of 3-4 years ago the overall impact seems to be minimal at best unfortunantly.
Nothing is done in a vacuum. We are now competing with an Ivy League that gives a virtual full ride to everyone. Also a fact that many have ignored our graduation rates were the second lowest in the League and we were not making our AI targets as well. I would argue we have some exceptional student athletes but they are young. We are still missing that big athletic center, so one or two players in the mix could make a difference.
Our esteemed BOT chairman was fond of saying that scholarships don't guarantee championships. What he failed to point out, competing with other schools that do have scholarships guarantees you'll never see ANY championships. The responsibility now lies on the coach to recruit well. So far we have not gotten that crucial person in the center.
Good points especially regarding our situation. What is more difficult to understand for me is why werent Bucknell and Holy Cross able to build on the monentum they started a few years back. I believe most of the starters on the Bucknell team that beat Kansas and Arkansas in the NCAA tourney were "non-scholarship" players recruited under the old rules. One would assume they would be able to spring board from that success and continue to bring in very good players given their new national exposure and scholarships. We of course still have to play by the AI rules, but I think most people expected the league would be further along at this point. I am also afraid this may hinder our arguement for FB scholarships as a league. Presidents will point out "well we gave b-ball scholarships and overall we are really no more nationally competive then before, will FB follow a similar trajectory?"
carney2
Franks Tanks wrote:
I believe most of the starters on the Bucknell team that beat Kansas and Arkansas in the NCAA tourney were "non-scholarship" players recruited under the old rules.
We will once again be dependent on our old friend Bison137 to give us chapter and verse on this. You are, if memory serves me well, correct in your assertion that there were non-scholarship players on that Bucknell team that beat Kansas - and even the following year when they beat Arkansas. Still, the heart and soul of those teams was that first year "lightning in a bottle" recruiting class that included Chris McNaughton, the son of a Lafayette grad. (One more time: A big and heartfelt THANK YOU to Artie R. for jousting at windmills all those years and keeping us out of that sleazy athletic scholarship mess.) That group had sophomore status vs. Kansas, I believe.
Still, and even after scorching Artie yet again, I am as amazed as anyone that, with basketball scholarships (1) the Patriot League is still a total bottom feeder, and (2) Lafayette continues to stink the place out just as much as ever.
Could Uncle Artie have been right?
Don't even think it.
Franks Tanks
carney2 wrote:
Franks Tanks wrote:
I believe most of the starters on the Bucknell team that beat Kansas and Arkansas in the NCAA tourney were "non-scholarship" players recruited under the old rules.
We will once again be dependent on our old friend Bison137 to give us chapter and verse on this. You are, if memory serves me well, correct in your assertion that there were non-scholarship players on that Bucknell team that beat Kansas - and even the following year when they beat Arkansas. Still, the heart and soul of those teams was that first year "lightning in a bottle" recruiting class that included Chris McNaughton, the son of a Lafayette grad. (One more time: A big and heartfelt THANK YOU to Artie R. for jousting at windmills all those years and keeping us out of that sleazy athletic scholarship mess.) That group had sophomore status vs. Kansas, I believe.
Still, and even after scorching Artie yet again, I am as amazed as anyone that, with basketball scholarships (1) the Patriot League is still a total bottom feeder, and (2) Lafayette continues to stink the place out just as much as ever.
Could Uncle Artie have been right?
Don't even think it.
You're right Carney (I was a bit off on that one) McNaughton and his class were scholly players, and they were the meat of that team. That was a truely great bunch of players. I guess many, myself included, felt that those type of players would be players the league would attrcat with scholarships on a pretty regular basis. That hasnt occured and unfortunantly.
bison137
Franks Tanks wrote:
Lafalum wrote:
Franks Tanks wrote:
TheTruth wrote:
I wasn't too surprised by the sagarin rating. This is a young team and we did have to replace 5 of our top 7 players from last year.
The surprising part was how low the conference rating was. This is the lowest I can remember.
Years after the implementation of scholarship Lafayette and the league is really no better off it appears. With the exception of some very good Bucknell and Holy Cross teams of 3-4 years ago the overall impact seems to be minimal at best unfortunantly.
Nothing is done in a vacuum. We are now competing with an Ivy League that gives a virtual full ride to everyone. Also a fact that many have ignored our graduation rates were the second lowest in the League and we were not making our AI targets as well. I would argue we have some exceptional student athletes but they are young. We are still missing that big athletic center, so one or two players in the mix could make a difference.
Our esteemed BOT chairman was fond of saying that scholarships don't guarantee championships. What he failed to point out, competing with other schools that do have scholarships guarantees you'll never see ANY championships. The responsibility now lies on the coach to recruit well. So far we have not gotten that crucial person in the center.
Good points especially regarding our situation. What is more difficult to understand for me is why werent Bucknell and Holy Cross able to build on the monentum they started a few years back. I believe most of the starters on the Bucknell team that beat Kansas and Arkansas in the NCAA tourney were "non-scholarship" players recruited under the old rules. One would assume they would be able to spring board from that success and continue to bring in very good players given their new national exposure and scholarships. We of course still have to play by the AI rules, but I think most people expected the league would be further along at this point. I am also afraid this may hinder our arguement for FB scholarships as a league. Presidents will point out "well we gave b-ball scholarships and overall we are really no more nationally competive then before, will FB follow a similar trajectory?"
I wouldn't say that scholarships have not had a positive effect. A huge reason for the PL having a down year is the league probably having its worst year in history for injuries. Among other injuries, four players who might have been All-PL have been hurt:
A. Colgates's 2G Kyle Roemer, who might well have been 1st team All-PL, is out for the season with a torn ACL.
B. Bucknell's SF Stephen Tyree, who might well have been 1st team All-PL, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Tyree last year as a soph led Bucknell in assists, rebounding, shooting pct, and was the league's defensive POY. This might have been the first time in NCAA history that a player accomplished those four feats in the same year.
C. Holy Cross's PF Alex Vander Baan has major back problems and will at best be a shadow of what he was his first few year.
D. Holy Cross's PG Pat Doherty, HC's only true PG, has major achilles problems and has played only a couple of minutes all year. Doherty was an all-freshman pick four years ago.
In addition to these four, there have been a lot of other injury issues:
- American: starting SF Bryce Simon missed all of November and December recovering from ACL surgery. He is a key role player for them.
- Bucknell: 2G Jason Vegotsky missed the whole pre-season and much of the first six weeks with thumb surgery and a subjequent re-injury; SF GW Boon missed the pre-season with a torn labrum that will require surgery - it greatly impacted his early season play; PG Darryl Shazier missed much of the pre-season with a foot injury that affected his early season ply; starting center Josh Linthicum dislocated his kneecap last January and then had to have elbow surgery in August - his level of play is way down from where it was pre-injury last year.
- Holy Cross: Center Eric Meister suffered an injury in a fall and his recent play has been affected; starting SF Colin Cunningham had two injuries (back and knocked-out tooth) that hurt his play; SF Lawrence Dixon has had many knee problems and will never be able to play at the level he was expected to.
- Lafayette: Voyouckas and Gruner.
- Lehigh: lost 2G Matt Shamis for the year with a knee injury; also missing wing Szalchowski due to injury; also did not have starting center Phil Anderson for a couple of games.
- Navy: starting wing Romeo Garcia, who is their top defensive player, has missed much of the season with hamstring problems.
Other factors that hurt the league's ooc results:
- Bucknell lost starting center Todd O'Brien - who could have been one of the better centers ever to play in the PL - when he transferred to St. Joes. Look for him to play well in the A-10 next year. Team is also still adjusting to a new coaching staff and new offensive and defensive systems.
- Garrison Carr, the league's top scorer, iunexplicably lost his shooting stroke for all of Novemer and December, which cost AU several ooc wins. After shooting 46% last year from beyond the arc, he shot 28% during those two months. Now suddenly he has regained his stroke and has hit 17-27 on threes in wins over Manhattan, Brown, and Columbia.
Also, remember that this year's graduating class will be a weak one overall, so the league should be significantly stronger next year. Looking around the league, this is a quick overview of the expectations for 2009-10:
AU - much weaker next year.
Army - should be much stronger, but with Jim Crews coaching, who knows.
Bucknell - will be MUCH stronger.
Colgate - will be much stronger.
Holy Cross - will be much stronger.
LC - you tell me.
Lehigh - will be stronger.
Navy - will be about the same or slightly worse.
In terms of the conference RPI, the Patriot League currently is projected to finish #22, which I think would be its third best finish ever. Not as good as the last two years but better than the earlier years.
- - - - -
BTW - Three of the five Bucknell starters from the 2004-06 teams were non-scholarship players, with the top three subs all being scholarship players.
carney2
bison137 wrote:
Looking around the league, this is a quick overview of the expectations for 2009-10:
AU - much weaker next year.
Army - should be much stronger, but with Jim Crews coaching, who knows.
Bucknell - will be MUCH stronger.
Colgate - will be much stronger.
Holy Cross - will be much stronger.
LC - you tell me.
Lehigh - will be stronger.
Navy - will be about the same or slightly worse.
Only one senior,
but
a recruiting class (2013) that gives every indication of being a dud.
The best we can hope for is maturity from the young guys.
Summary: Improved, but not "much" stronger as is indicated for many of the others.
bison137
carney2 wrote:
bison137 wrote:
Looking around the league, this is a quick overview of the expectations for 2009-10:
AU - much weaker next year.
Army - should be much stronger, but with Jim Crews coaching, who knows.
Bucknell - will be MUCH stronger.
Colgate - will be much stronger.
Holy Cross - will be much stronger.
LC - you tell me.
Lehigh - will be stronger.
Navy - will be about the same or slightly worse.
Only one senior,
but
a recruiting class (2013) that gives every indication of being a dud.
The best we can hope for is maturity from the young guys.
Summary: Improved, but not "much" stronger as is indicated for many of the others.
As an outsider, I'd say it could be anywhere from a little worse to a lot better depending on what kind of play you get from the PG spot. I don't expect anyone to be Andrew Brown, but the PG's will have to at least be able to run the offense without a ton of turnovers.
Kiltedpard
As an outsider, I'd say it could be anywhere from a little worse to a lot better depending on what kind of play you get from the PG spot. I don't expect anyone to be Andrew Brown, but the PG's will have to at least be able to run the offense without a ton of turnovers.[/quote]
Sure we will miss his scoring but AB has had 7 and 6 turnover, respectively, in the last two games with several key ones down the stretch against Mt. SM. Time for others to step up now.
Lafalum
Couldn't agree more about AB. Right now he is not a big plus as defenses have pretty much made him a liability with his missed shots. Our future is the young guys and they will get a lot of minutes. Willen looks very good and Benbow is begining to play. Even Koltun is playing better. However, I have no rose colored glasses we are not good enough now to be in the top half of the league.
